Abstract
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill presented an unprecedented threat to the Gulf of Mexico marine resources. Needed for mitigation efforts and ship survey guidance was a system for tracking the oil, both at the surface and at depth. A nowcast/forecast system was implemented immediately upon spill onset, by marshaling numerical model and satellite remote sensing resources available from existing coastal ocean observing activities. Surface oil locations inferred from satellite imagery were used to initialize the positions of the virtual particles in an ensemble of trajectory models, and the particles were tracked using forecast surface currents, with new particles added to simulate the continual release of oil from the well. Multiple models were used for an ensemble forecast. Three dimensional subsurface tracking was also performed from the well site location at several different depths. This activity provides an example of how an Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) as a partnership between the academics, the agencies, and the private sector can be of great benefit to the nation.

The above figure shows the "Surface Trajectory Multiple Model Ensemble Forecast." Click on it for a larger image.